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April 03, 2008

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TheUnrepentantGunner

Anal_yst, you could've posted this much more succintly.

LULU is the CROX of 2008.

The end.

Good call though.

1-2

Damnit Gunner, you beat me to that! That'll teach me to wander away from the site--ever.

I think CROX is a much better comp to LULU than UA, but the analysis holds none the less. Long consumer disc, short CROX and LULU would be a pretty solid trade.

I hold no positions.

Anal_yst

Gunner, I couldn't have said it better myself (and, clearly, I didn't)

Touche sir, touche.

Calgary Schmooze

I can't wait to return to the Land Of The Fat during my trip to Texas and Louisiana at the end of the month.

I have heard that the American LULU stores toss in a free shoehorn and can of axle grease with every purchase to help customers get into the clothing...

Nominate me

I would like a little love for comparing LULU to CROX yesterday on DB. I think the term used was dog shit. But I'll double check.

Schmooze, Texas also has a solid amount of hot ass.

Excellent job on the blog so far.

Question, is there really some knucklehead forcing you to include a disclosure on your posts?

Calgary Schmooze

With a population that is roughly 70% of that of the entire country of Canada, I sure as hell hope there is some hot ass in that state!

Every time I go shopping at The Galleria, I try to count the number of hot chicks, but, unfortunately, the tally is usually disappointingly low.

Anal_yst

@ Nominate me

Please forgive me for not giving credit, I haven't been getting as much DB as usual, been busy over here unfortunately.

As far as the disclosures, we are the only knuckleheads here, and figured that a little CYA couldn't hurt, especially since if you actually read the wording, they aren't exactly standard legalese...

TheUnrepentantGunner

And yes i didnt read your post either Nominate... I guess great minds...

Nominate me

I use a hot chick indicator when evaluating retail. If a disproportionate number of fat chicks are wearing a certain item (i.e. crox), it's not a good investment.

@ Schmooze: the Galleria is run over with tourists. Why don't you go to Times Square and base your opinion on the people there while you are at it. Be a mini-baller, get the bottle service at the Hotel Zaza bar in Dallas...profit.

You might run into the trader that sits across from me this weekend.

OPM Finance

The only thing bad about comparing LULU and CROX is that most short sellers of the latter were carried out horizontally. That thing had huge short interest for many moons and just went straight up. The excessive valuation did pay for some nice Ferraris in Boulder, though.

Antonina

ahahaha Did you even checked out the earnings for lululemon this year? I bet your big fat ass you didn't. Snap!

Anal_yst

Thank you Antonina for that very useful comment. Lets evaluate:

1. I work out 4-6 days a week. My ass is not fat, although my weekend consumption patterns, if continued, will ensure that it is before the close of FY '08.

2. Earnings? What are they? Do they grow on trees? I bet in your world (yahoo message boards) they do.

3. Lululemon's results are helped by having a smaller float and a lower tax rate this year. The results are stellar, but by no means rationalize the stock's valuation.

Watch next 2 quarters as their same-store sales growth slows dramatically. I'd love to be a permabull like you, but reality is that (as I hoped you all learned from the past year) asset prices do not go up indefinitely.

Calgary Schmooze

Slows dramatically? They are pulling out of Japan entirely. Must that must be due to changes in the carry trade, eh?

They also announced they are hiring additional senior executives to help expand into swimming, running and dancing. I was unaware of the highly lucrative swimming and dancing markets but do have an understanding that when you poke the Nike monster in the wrong manner, you risk getting slapped around.

Anal_yst

Yes, Schmooze, I honestly can't imagine this multiple lasting more than another quarter or two. If I were more ambitious, I'd put some research together on average time to normalized multiple reversion, but again, thats a big "if".

Also, excuse my trusting of Reuters data, as it seems Lulu's current market cap is actually GREATER than Under Armour at around $2.1Bn.

CHE RIDICULOUSO!

Marc

I can pretty much guarantee everyone of you jokers who has made the decision to side with analyst (inclusive of the initial poster) has never seen the inside of a "GOOD" gym (im not talking about clubfit or world health club and places of the sort resembling night clubs). None here do or rarely ever workout I'm sure (don't kid yourself), if you're male will never EVER even get to talk to a cutie rockin a pair of lulu's, if you're a female you probably won't even come close to fitting in pair but I'm sure what you lack in fitness and looks your sexy "brain and intelligence" will make up for it AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA(again kidding yourself).

I see some of you chatting up market value on this product. Who cares. There's enough fat people in north america. Looking at the correlation between those who can wear lulu gear and those who can't, it's quite clear the social pressure created by this product affects lard asses to do nothing more than blog away in order to boost their egos as they sit at their computer desks bashing away as their image and profile is conviently not available anywhere.

I dare all who have posted on this page to put up their stats along with an ACTUAL picture of yourself somehow, somewhere.
Yes, I DARE ALL OF YOU OUT OF SHAPE COMPLAINERS CONTRIBUTING TO OVERWEIGHT AMERICA AND IT'S APPROVAL TO DO SO!

6'0" 185lbs 9% bf.

Anal_yst

@ Marc

While you I Frankly don't give a rats ass what you think, for what its worth I bench press 250+, lat row 200+, leg press 500+, play competitive squash, and run in the occassional 5k-10k for charity, etc.

I also don't work out at one of the "nightclub" gyms you so described, and I have the calluses on my hands to prove it.

Believe it or not, not all of us "keyboard jockys" are fat lard buckets as you seem to believe. As a matter of fact, myself and 1-2 have met several of our readers, many of whom are in very good shape.

I can't speak for everyone, but don't go running your mouth when you have absolutely no idea wtf you're talking about.

Thanks.

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