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October 08, 2008

Guest Post: The Year 2058

From The Man Upstairs:

This morning, as I watched banks around the world cut interest rates and market participants recognize the move as if it were a handjob proffered at the prom (in the immortal words of Turtle, "Who the f*** wants a handjob?"), it struck me that even if the global economy isn't f'd, a lot of people think that it is.  But like I've said previously, the world's been a pretty stuck-up place over the last decade; maybe a good f'ing is exactly what it needs (I would like to see the Journal describe the global correction as such).

 

Anyway, despite considering myself an optimist, it's pretty hard not to let this sort of thing bring you down when all you do is read about it, talk about it, and literally watch it happen all day, five days a week.  So this morning I did what any good analyst does when he's faced with a set of facts that he doesn't enjoy - I buckled down, and let my mind steadily wander away from reality.  At one point, I had the thought, If the me of 50 years from now could say something to me today, what would he say?


Dear Kenneth,

 

First of all, I want you to know a few things.  McCain did die shortly after 2008, so you made the right move.  Also, I still haven't seen a major sports championship in Philly, so don't get your hopes up.  Lastly, the third installment of Nolan's Batman was good but it was no Dark Knight.  That said, the remake of the remake of the remake of The Longest Yard just won Best Picture.

 

I'm writing you this letter because I know the country is going through a tough spot right now.  Despite Douglas Adams' advice, everyone has panicked.  But, don't sweat it - things in 2058 are pretty sweet.  (Yes, you still say "sweet" fifty years in the future).  I mean, we're starting to have an ozone layer again, which is nice; I forgot how cute polar bears are.  Hunter Manning just threw 72 TDs last year.  Chris Rock Jr.'s delivery actually gave someone an aneurysm at his show last week.  But I digress.

 

Listen, slick - the economy is going to be fine. Despite the unconscionably irrational fear in the markets, the U.S. of 2008 is still home to the best economy on the planet.  Was then, is now, too; GE actually bought two countries in Africa last quarter, people and everything.  And you know how you think it's ironic that credit spreads have blown out to historically high levels just as the largest retiree population the U.S. has ever seen is coming to prominence, sending the long-term, underlying demand for fixed income products through the roof?  And you know how you think that over time, this demand shift will probably make fixed income a good bet as an asset class?  Totally happened.  By the way, MGM Studios?  Still hasn't sold its library or re-financed its debt, but the loans feel pretty covered at current levels. 

 

Oh, and you do eventually write something worth reading - but I'm not telling you when.

 

 

Even our hindsight needs glasses,

 

Kenneth

Chairman & CEO, KND, Inc.

 

 

p.s.  Our bar in New Zealand is killing it.

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Good to know the bond franchise still holds value in 2058...

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