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May 10, 2009

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Kid Dynamite

very well done... somehow though, my estimate is that 98% of forecasts are based on that flawed methodology... which is why they are a joke.

the other ridiculous point is the TINY number of data points they look at!

Anal_yst

@ KD

Its the "lets come up with analysis that reinforces our preconceived view of the world" approach.

Sadly, crap like that gets rewarded far too often, sigh...

Kid Dynamite

this is exactly why i feel good about the bear case now... because the bull case is basically "recessions last x months, and the stock market rallies y months before the end of the recession" - which i find embarrassing.

the main risk to the bear case is that the Fed just prints TRILLIONS of dollars and buys up all the bad debt, resulting in NOMINAL gains in the market, stupid americans feeling good and re-electing everyone who wants to get re-elected - higher inflation and higher taxation - which clearly results in everyone being POORER - but they can't tell because they are NOMINALLY richer... fahhhhhk

Kid Dynamite

barry's piece today is another super simple point wondering why we care what economists who have proven their INABILITY think...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/yet-another-greenspan-housing-bottom-call/

Anal_yst

@KD

I feel great about the "bear case" although I loathe that term, but the problem is the guy on the other side of your trade has virtually unlimited resources, can change the rules at-will, and doesn't comprehend or care about second + order consequences of their actions.

Kid Dynamite

yeah, potentially true. i just read another summary of the bull case vs the bear case, which i think was accidental:

""bearish argument was more fundamental, while the bullish argument seemed to be statistical. "

exactly my point... and i'm a math guy too! i'll take the fundamentals though, over "average length of the previous 6 recessions"

Anal_yst

@ KD

HA, you knew it was only a matter of time before myself or someone else invoked Samuel Clemens' "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics..."

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Yeah thats the worst way of learn.

Renae Bandin

nice topic , hunt this from blogsearch and good luck for you.just tally up the rss feed to my reader,keep bring up to date!

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That's definitely not a good way to learn from history at all!

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We should learn things from past.Reading this article i believe the economists should have learned lessons from the past.To work things smoothly learning from past and also implementing what you have learnt,is really necessary.

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You could be a failure without knowing all of these. Glad to read a blog like this.

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I agree with some of this as it's always good to look at the past to help with the future. But just don't get too wrapped up in what you find.

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